Historically, a good way for a government to generate a financial crisis is to run large budget deficits while escalating the money supply. Emerging market countries have executed this playbook countless times with predictable results: debt defaults, inflation, a weaker currency. Do the same rules apply to developed economies? Perhaps not. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) …
The S&P 500 Index is up a little over 5% through the first three quarters of the year. And as we all know, it’s been a fairly volatile ride with the market statistically entering both “Bear” and “Bull” market territory in the 1st half of the year. As a reminder, markets are deemed to be …
March 2020 marked the statistical end to the longest running bull market in US modern history. 132 months, exactly 11 years after the Great Recession bottom in 2009. A bear market is defined as a 20% decline from the previous market high. Market highs were reached February 19th, lows roughly one month later. The market’s …
Inflation has been relatively muted for decades. The long term trend has been down, with graphic representations looking similar to generational decreasing yield slopes. But we can’t help wonder, in a market in which animal spirits run amok, what will be the catalyst for an asset price bull market correction? We’ve long stated that looking …
What is the middle class of a country’s population? The generally accepted definition is the segment of population earning between 2/3x and 2x the median household income. Of course, numbers can be deceiving as what passes for middle class in the developed nations could easily pass for rich in an emerging country. That’s why any comparative …
International markets continue valued at significant discounts to US markets. Of course, some of this is understandable given stronger domestic growth and volatile trade disputes. Emerging Market economies have traditionally been dependent on trade for GDP growth. However, many of these economies continue their maturation process and are today less dependent on exports than decades …
Historians state the Great Recession started in the third quarter of 2008 with the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market, complete meltdown of Lehman Brothers and the US Treasury take over AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The reality is the seeds of financial distress were planted with the 1999 repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act …
Investors, as people, have a tendency to favor what they know. They are more comfortable, feel like they are taking less risk, investing in markets they know. Many individuals can claim that their instincts, their feelings, have been drivers of their professional successes. As such, the majority of US investors tend to favor US markets. …
Financial institutions (banks, credit card companies, title companies, brokerage firms, RIAs, etc) all take multiple steps to safeguard client monies. However, the one vulnerability none of these institutions can mitigate is the client themselves being the source of data breach. The basic method identity thieves use to begin hijacking personal data is getting the client …
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