In the long term, emotion-free value investing works better than qualitative stock picking. Excessive fees are counterproductive. Long term portfolio “alpha” can be achieved by quantitatively “tilting” portfolios to reflect factors demonstrated to outperform traditional indexes. Below are a few links to supportive external research.
Do you ever think that you can pick a really good manager ahead of time? (it is easy to pick one after the fact). It turns out that ‘ex post’ (past) returns have very little predictive power for ‘ex ante’ (expected) returns. 99% of the investing public fails to appreciate this point…
It is best to understand that as market participants, we have NO idea where the market is headed in the short term. There are indicators for subsequent market returns but unfortunately, these returns are realized over the period of years…
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